聯(lián)儲(chǔ)仍未對緊縮松口

　　激石Pepperstone(http://hppnl.com/)報(bào)道：

　　假期閱讀了美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)理事Waller和Cook的演講稿，很遺憾，依然沒有看到對于政策緊縮松口的措辭。

　　Waller的觀點(diǎn)很重要，因?yàn)樗敲缆?lián)儲(chǔ)內(nèi)部堅(jiān)持認(rèn)定美國經(jīng)濟(jì)將實(shí)現(xiàn)“軟著陸”的理事，此前更是斷言“衰退論”已經(jīng)被證偽。目前筆者覆蓋每一次Waller的公開表態(tài)和演講——觀察他的態(tài)度轉(zhuǎn)變實(shí)際上也就大致可以捕捉到美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的微妙變化。簡言之，如果Waller哪天口風(fēng)變了，那說明他心中的軟著陸可能實(shí)現(xiàn)不了。

　　Cook的觀點(diǎn)亦很重要，因?yàn)樗莿倓偙话莸翘崦男吕硎?，也是史上第一位進(jìn)入聯(lián)儲(chǔ)理事會(huì)的非裔美國女性。最近她在PIIE的表態(tài)是她作為聯(lián)儲(chǔ)理事的首次公開亮相。最近有許多小伙伴問起美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)是否會(huì)在臨近中期選舉時(shí)受到來自MZ黨的“政治壓力”，我們看看Lisa Cook的表態(tài)就可以一探究竟。

　　Waller的看法

　　話不多說，直接上原文解析。

　　This is not the inflation outcome I am looking for to support a slower pace of rate hikes or a lower terminal policy rate than projected in the September 2022 SEP. And, though there are additional data to come, in my view, we haven't yet made meaningful progress on inflation and until that progress is both meaningful and persistent, I support continued rate increases, along with ongoing reductions in the Fed's balance sheet, to help restrain aggregate demand. As far as achieving our dual mandate, this is a one-sided battle. We currently do not face a tradeoff between our employment objective and our inflation objective, so monetary policy can and must be used aggressively to bring down inflation.

　　很直接的表達(dá)了目前的通脹數(shù)據(jù)不足以放緩加息的速度，也不足以下調(diào)終端利率——目前抗擊通脹未取得實(shí)質(zhì)性進(jìn)展。最關(guān)鍵的是，Waller提到聯(lián)儲(chǔ)目前的雙重使命實(shí)質(zhì)是單邊戰(zhàn)——抗擊通脹是至高目標(biāo)。并且通脹目標(biāo)和就業(yè)目標(biāo)目前根本不存在取舍問題(9月非農(nóng)依然強(qiáng)勁)，所以貨幣政策必須保持激進(jìn)加息來遏制通脹。

　　As I mentioned earlier, rent growth has been very high recently. The housing services component of the PCE price index rose a bit above 0.7 percent in August, which was slightly above the previous three-month average. And I expect a similar pace to continue for a while, well into next year. Why? Shelter inflation measures the rents actually paid by households. Only a fraction of households sign a new lease in a given month or renew their lease each month. So, when monthly shelter inflation is calculated, it includes a large share of homes under lease where rents did not change. As a result, changes in market conditions show up in the inflation statistics only over a period of several months. In addition, the inflation statistics use a six-month average when calculating rent growth. Asking rents and rents on new lease contracts—which do reflect contemporaneous rental market conditions—have been rising at a fast pace for more than a year. These increases have fueled shelter inflation so far this year, and they should continue to do so for at least the next six months. That said, there is a glimmer of hope in the most recent readings of asking rents, where the rate of increase has stepped down a bit. This slower pace should eventually contribute to a slowdown in shelter inflation, although that might not be seen until later next year.

　　這一段，Waller提到了房租市場的通脹壓力，目前美國的高通脹壓力來源中，核心通脹的房租價(jià)格貢獻(xiàn)較高，大家都在寄望于房租通脹回落?？蒞aller預(yù)計(jì)房租壓力會(huì)持續(xù)到明年，因?yàn)樽饨鹪鏊俚挠?jì)算是以六個(gè)月的平均值為準(zhǔn)的，且很多租約的價(jià)格是固定的。換言之，來自房租的核心通脹壓力會(huì)持續(xù)至明年。

　　I don't think that this extent of data is likely to be sufficient to significantly alter my view of the economy, and I expect most policymakers will feel the same way. I imagine we will have a very thoughtful discussion about the pace of tightening at our next meeting.

　　如果你想要觀察聯(lián)儲(chǔ)對加息幅度的考量，毫無疑問應(yīng)該關(guān)注11月的議息會(huì)議，而在11月初以前的數(shù)據(jù)都不足以實(shí)質(zhì)性改變Waller(和聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員)對經(jīng)濟(jì)的看法。

　　In considering what might happen to alter my expectations about the path of policy, I've read some speculation recently that financial stability concerns could possibly lead the FOMC to slow rate increases or halt them earlier than expected. Let me be clear that this is not something I'm considering or believe to be a very likely development.

　　另外，最近有很多聲音提到“金融穩(wěn)定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)”會(huì)使得聯(lián)儲(chǔ)提早放緩或終止加息，但Waller斬釘截鐵地否認(rèn)了。

　　Cook的觀點(diǎn)

　　我們再來看看Cook的首次亮相，很多措辭可以說是極端鷹派了……

　　In the current situation, with risks to inflation forecasts skewed to the upside, I believe policy judgments must be based on whether and when we see inflation actually falling in the data, rather than just in forecasts. Although most forecasts see considerable progress on inflation in coming years, it is important to consider whether inflation dynamics may have changed in a persistent way, making our forecasts even more uncertain.

　　這里Cook傳達(dá)的信號(hào)是聯(lián)儲(chǔ)目前的施政并不基于“數(shù)據(jù)預(yù)測”而是“實(shí)際數(shù)據(jù)”——預(yù)期通脹下降不足以讓聯(lián)儲(chǔ)轉(zhuǎn)向，聯(lián)儲(chǔ)必須看到通脹實(shí)質(zhì)性的回落。且給通脹測頂沒太大意義，因?yàn)椤靶枰紤]通脹動(dòng)態(tài)已經(jīng)實(shí)質(zhì)性地改變了”，所以“我們的預(yù)測具有很大的不確定性”。

　　In our current economy, with a very strong labor market and inflation far above our goal, I believe a risk-management approach requires a strong focus on taming inflation. Inflation poses both a near- and long-term threat. Aside from the immediate effect of higher prices on households and businesses, the longer it persists and the more people come to expect it, the greater the risks of elevated inflation becoming entrenched. I think it is critical that we prevent an inflationary psychology from taking hold. This is not simply an abstract concept, but a risk I take seriously based on personal experience. My time doing dissertation research in Russia in the mid-1990s taught me just how disruptive and painful an extremely high-inflation environment can be.

　　市場非常熱衷于拿聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的“risk-management”一詞做文章，認(rèn)為提及“風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理”就意味著聯(lián)儲(chǔ)開始思考經(jīng)濟(jì)下行的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)——這是無稽之談。目前的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理仍然針對的是抗擊通脹，以防通脹變得積重難返。此處Cook提及筆者非常重視的一點(diǎn)，即通脹的傷害可不是“抽象的概念”。很多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)者在談?wù)撏洉r(shí)僅僅把其視為聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的通脹目標(biāo)和一個(gè)可以玩弄的數(shù)字，完全沒有將它視為底層收入群體實(shí)際面對的生活成本提高的痛楚，是脫離實(shí)際的。