鮑威爾：美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)能更快或更慢降息，特朗普不能解雇我，未來或適宜放慢降息

在談到通脹時(shí)，他承認(rèn)“有一份通脹數(shù)據(jù)略高于預(yù)期”，但并不能令其擔(dān)心經(jīng)濟(jì)：

“總體而言，我們對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)感到樂觀。與此同時(shí)，我們得到了一份通脹報(bào)告，雖然不是很糟糕，但確實(shí)比預(yù)期高了一點(diǎn)。

但是到12月，我們將獲得更多數(shù)據(jù)，比如還會(huì)有一份就業(yè)報(bào)告、兩份通脹報(bào)告和大量其他數(shù)據(jù)，我們將在12月的會(huì)議上做出決定?！?/p>

他還重申，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)依舊相信會(huì)實(shí)現(xiàn)“軟著陸”，“相信我們可以在實(shí)現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁就業(yè)的同時(shí)完成抗擊高通脹的任務(wù)”，而且美國人的長(zhǎng)期通脹預(yù)期仍錨定良好。

在談到10年期美債收益率自9月美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)大幅降息以來飆升超70個(gè)基點(diǎn)時(shí)，鮑威爾認(rèn)為美債收益率走高主要受經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)驅(qū)動(dòng)，而不是貨幣政策驅(qū)動(dòng)：

“現(xiàn)在判斷美國國債收益率的走勢(shì)還言之過早，似乎債券走勢(shì)并非由通脹高于預(yù)期主導(dǎo)，經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)數(shù)據(jù)一直都比預(yù)期的更強(qiáng)勁?！?/p>

同時(shí)，美債收益率走高也不可避免與特朗普政府未來大舉發(fā)債、導(dǎo)致財(cái)政赤字愈發(fā)巨大的預(yù)期有關(guān)，鮑威爾直言美國赤字不斷上升和整體財(cái)政政策仍是經(jīng)濟(jì)的阻力，聯(lián)邦債務(wù)規(guī)模不可持續(xù)：

“我們的債務(wù)水平相對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)而言并非不合適，而是這條路徑不可持續(xù)。在赤字巨大的情況下，目前處于充分就業(yè)狀態(tài)，并且預(yù)計(jì)這種情況將繼續(xù)下去，因此處理（財(cái)政赤字）這個(gè)問題很重要，這最終是對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的威脅?！?/p>

鮑威爾實(shí)現(xiàn)準(zhǔn)備好的記者會(huì)開場(chǎng)白稿件原文如下：

下午好。我和我的同事們?nèi)匀粚Ｗ⒂趯?shí)現(xiàn)我們的雙重使命目標(biāo)，即充分就業(yè)和穩(wěn)定物價(jià)，以造福美國人民。經(jīng)濟(jì)總體強(qiáng)勁，過去兩年在實(shí)現(xiàn)我們的目標(biāo)方面取得了重大進(jìn)展。勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)已從之前的過熱狀態(tài)降溫并保持穩(wěn)健。截至9月份，通貨膨脹率已從7%的峰值大幅下降至2.1%。我們致力于通過支持充分就業(yè)和將通貨膨脹率恢復(fù)到2%的目標(biāo)來保持經(jīng)濟(jì)的強(qiáng)勁。

Good afternoon. My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people. The economy is strong overall and has made significant progress toward our goals over the past two years. The labor market has cooled from its formerly overheated state and remains solid. Inflation has eased substantially from a peak of 7?percent to 2.1?percent as of September. We are committed to maintaining our economy’s strength by supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to our 2?percent goal.

今天，聯(lián)邦公開市場(chǎng)委員會(huì)決定采取進(jìn)一步措施，降低政策約束程度，將政策利率下調(diào)25個(gè)基點(diǎn)。我們?nèi)匀幌嘈?，只要適當(dāng)調(diào)整我們的政策立場(chǎng)，經(jīng)濟(jì)和勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)的強(qiáng)勁勢(shì)頭就能保持下去，通脹率將持續(xù)下降至2%。我們還決定繼續(xù)減少證券持有量。在簡(jiǎn)要回顧經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展情況后，我將就貨幣政策發(fā)表更多看法。

Today, the FOMC decided to take another step in reducing the degree of policy restraint by lowering our policy interest rate by 1/4?percentage point. We continue to be confident that with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, strength in the economy and the labor market can be maintained, with inflation moving sustainably down to 2 percent. We also decided to continue to reduce our securities holdings. I will have more to say about monetary policy after briefly reviewing economic developments.

最近的指標(biāo)顯示，經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)繼續(xù)穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng)。第三季度國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值年增長(zhǎng)率為2.8%，與第二季度大致相同。消費(fèi)支出增長(zhǎng)保持韌性，設(shè)備和無形資產(chǎn)投資增強(qiáng)。相比之下，房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的活動(dòng)一直疲軟。總體而言，供應(yīng)條件的改善支撐了美國經(jīng)濟(jì)在過去一年的強(qiáng)勁表現(xiàn)。

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. GDP rose at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the third quarter, about the same pace as in the second quarter. Growth of consumer spending has remained resilient, and investment in equipment and intangibles has strengthened. In contrast, activity in the housing sector has been weak. Overall, improving supply conditions have supported the strong performance of the U.S. economy over the past year.

勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)狀況依然穩(wěn)健。就業(yè)崗位增長(zhǎng)速度較今年早些時(shí)候有所放緩，過去三個(gè)月平均每月新增10.4萬個(gè)。如果不是因?yàn)?0月份罷工和颶風(fēng)對(duì)就業(yè)的影響，這一數(shù)字可能會(huì)更高一些。關(guān)于颶風(fēng)，請(qǐng)?jiān)试S我向所有受到這些毀滅性風(fēng)暴影響的家庭、企業(yè)和社區(qū)表示慰問。失業(yè)率明顯高于一年前，但在過去三個(gè)月有所下降，10月仍保持在4.1%的低位。名義工資增長(zhǎng)在過去一年有所放緩，開放崗位數(shù)量與求職工人之間的差距有所縮小。總體而言，一系列廣泛的指標(biāo)表明，勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)的緊張狀況比2019年疫情爆發(fā)前有所緩解。勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)并不是重大通脹壓力的來源。

In the labor market, conditions remain solid. Payroll job gains have slowed from earlier in the year, averaging 104 thousand per month over the past three months. This figure would have been somewhat higher were it not for the effects of labor strikes and hurricanes on employment in October. Regarding the hurricanes, let me extend our sympathies to all the families, businesses, and communities who have been harmed by these devastating storms. The unemployment rate is notably higher than it was a year ago, but has edged down over the past three months and remains low at 4.1 percent in October. Nominal wage growth has eased over the past year, and the jobs-to-workers gap has narrowed. Overall, a broad set of indicators suggests that conditions in the labor market are now less tight than just before the pandemic in 2019. The labor market is not a source of significant inflationary pressures.

過去兩年，通貨膨脹率大幅下降。截至9月份的12個(gè)月內(nèi)，PCE總價(jià)格上漲了2.1%；除去波動(dòng)較大的食品和能源類別，核心PCE價(jià)格上漲了2.7%?？傮w而言，通貨膨脹率已更接近我們2% 的長(zhǎng)期目標(biāo)，但核心通貨膨脹率仍然略高。從對(duì)家庭、企業(yè)和預(yù)測(cè)者的廣泛調(diào)查以及金融市場(chǎng)的指標(biāo)來看，長(zhǎng)期通脹預(yù)期似乎仍保持穩(wěn)定。

Inflation has eased significantly over the past two years. Total PCE prices rose 2.1 percent over the 12 months ending in September; excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 2.7 percent. Overall, inflation has moved much closer to our 2 percent longer-run goal, but core inflation remains somewhat elevated. Longer-term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored, as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, as well as measures from financial markets.

我們的貨幣政策行動(dòng)以促進(jìn)美國人民充分就業(yè)和物價(jià)穩(wěn)定為雙重使命。我們認(rèn)為實(shí)現(xiàn)就業(yè)和通脹目標(biāo)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)大致平衡，我們關(guān)注我們兩方面使命各自面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

Our monetary policy actions are guided by our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. We see the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals as being roughly in balance, and we are attentive to the risks to both sides of our mandate.

在今天的會(huì)議上，委員會(huì)決定將聯(lián)邦基金利率目標(biāo)區(qū)間下調(diào)25個(gè)基點(diǎn)，至4.5%到4.75%的區(qū)間。進(jìn)一步調(diào)整我們的政策立場(chǎng)將有助于保持經(jīng)濟(jì)和勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)的強(qiáng)勁，并將繼續(xù)推動(dòng)通脹進(jìn)一步下降，也令我們將逐步轉(zhuǎn)向更加中性的立場(chǎng)。

At today’s meeting the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point, to 4-1/2 to 4-3/4?percent. This further recalibration of our policy stance will help maintain the strength of the economy and the labor market and will continue to enable further progress on inflation as we move toward a more neutral stance over time.

我們知道，過快減少政策約束可能會(huì)阻礙通脹（降溫）的進(jìn)展。同時(shí)，過慢減少政策約束可能會(huì)過度削弱經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)和就業(yè)。在考慮對(duì)聯(lián)邦基金利率目標(biāo)區(qū)間進(jìn)行額外調(diào)整時(shí)，委員會(huì)將仔細(xì)評(píng)估即將公布的數(shù)據(jù)、不斷變化的前景和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)平衡。我們沒有任何預(yù)設(shè)的路線，將繼續(xù)逐次會(huì)議做出決定。

We know that reducing policy restraint too quickly could hinder progress on inflation. At the same time, reducing policy restraint too slowly could unduly weaken economic activity and employment. In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. We are not on any preset course. We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting.

隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展，貨幣政策將進(jìn)行調(diào)整，以最好地促進(jìn)我們實(shí)現(xiàn)充分就業(yè)和價(jià)格穩(wěn)定目標(biāo)。如果經(jīng)濟(jì)保持強(qiáng)勁，而通脹率沒有持續(xù)向2%邁進(jìn)，我們可以更緩慢地減少政策限制。如果勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)意外走弱，或者通脹率下降速度快于預(yù)期，我們可以更快地采取行動(dòng)。政策已經(jīng)準(zhǔn)備好應(yīng)對(duì)我們?cè)谧非箅p重使命時(shí)面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和不確定性。

As the economy evolves, monetary policy will adjust in order to best promote our maximum employment and price stability goals. If the economy remains strong and inflation is not sustainably moving toward 2 percent, we can dial back policy restraint more slowly. If the labor market were to weaken unexpectedly or inflation were to fall more quickly than anticipated, we can move more quickly. Policy is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties that we face in pursuing both sides of our dual mandate.

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)被賦予了兩個(gè)貨幣政策目標(biāo)——最大限度就業(yè)和穩(wěn)定物價(jià)。我們?nèi)匀恢铝τ谥С肿畲笙薅染蜆I(yè)，將通脹率持續(xù)降至2%的目標(biāo)，并保持長(zhǎng)期通脹預(yù)期穩(wěn)定。我們能否成功實(shí)現(xiàn)這些目標(biāo)對(duì)所有美國人來說都至關(guān)重要。我們明白，我們的行動(dòng)會(huì)影響到全美各地的社區(qū)、家庭和企業(yè)。我們所做的一切都是為了履行我們的公共使命。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將竭盡全力實(shí)現(xiàn)最大限度就業(yè)和物價(jià)穩(wěn)定的目標(biāo)。謝謝，期待討論。

The Fed has been assigned two goals for monetary policy—maximum employment and stable prices. We remain committed to supporting maximum employment, bringing inflation sustainably to our 2?percent goal, and keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored. Our success in delivering on these goals matters to all Americans. We understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We at the Fed will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals. Thank you. I look forward to our discussion.?????????